6 Nations 2018: The Force Wakes Up, Thinks 'Nah Sack It', and Goes Back to Bed.

Another year, another miserable misty January disappearing under the glow of 6 Nations rugby. Who will win? Who will collect yet another wooden spoon in aid of their already thriving baking industry? Who will start the last game with a full 23 players in the match-day squad? My ill-judged, ill-informed and generally nonsense musings on some or all of these questions are summed up as follows. 

England

'Crisis? What crisis?' was the incredulous assessment of Italy coach Connor O'Shea, who would kill for a team that could have 18 (potentially) (since confirmed as a number lower than 18) absentees and still field 8 British Lions. England's problem isn't necessarily the number of injuries as the number of injuries in 2 positions, however; for all their depth they are one more injury away from starting they're 6th choice (at best) loose-head in the 6 nations. Given the impact that could potentially have - especially at scrums - and Eddie Jones could be forgiven for hiring a squad of ex-special services bodyguards to shadow Mako Vunipola until Joe Marler's latest suspension expires.

The back row looks easier to cover, with Simmonds in rampaging-tiger form for Exeter and Underhill looking good in the autumn until he decided to head-but an Argentinean hip. Itoje and Lawes have both played 6. It is the front row, the Irish and Murrayfield that are the obvious banana skins on the way to a 3rd successive title.

France

It feels like every year I have to upgrade the sentence 'they can't possibly be any more of a mess than they are now'. France, who have very much been the France of post-millennial rugby, could buy Trump tower with the money in their league. The shame is their team looks increasingly like his government, they play alternative rugby (POLITICS JOKE!!) and generally make a total hash of it. They were lucky to draw with Japan, and this lead to the unceremonial guillotining of then coach Guy Noves along with the unceremonial dropping of most of the team. Apparently now, they've found this amazing 19 year old fly-half who would be the saviour of Gallic egg-chasing, but he can't be because they run the game from 9.

Their problems now include but are not limited to: not knowing their best team, not having a game plan, having a new coach, not having as much training time with their team as other nations and away trips to Scotland and Wales. The smart money is on a recall for Frederick Michalak and a resurgence of Racing's bow-tie kit. Complete with champagne at half time. Would anyone be surprised?  

Ireland

If England are leading the 'my injury list is bigger than yours' competition, other teams with less depth are also feeling the pinch and Ireland have problems of their own. The current toll sits at 11, with Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip and Gary Ringrose among those keeping physio's benches warm.

Though Ireland beat England last year and played a full part in helping the Lions to not-lose against New Zealand, their away form in the 6N has been poor in much the same way that Mark Zuckerberg isn't. I.e. very. Ireland have 3 matches at home but play England at Twickenham, on the last day of the tournament, and quite what the state of either side will be by then is anyone's guess. I've not played loose-head before but I'll be keeping my boots (which I haven't yet bought) handy.

Italy

One of 2 traditional 'easy' games for the bigger nations in this tournament, Italy were slightly later than Scotland in restructuring their domestic game in an attempt to benefit the national side. This all comes from the top-down: Connor O'Shea is not just running the national side but all of Italian rugby. Treviso have become Benetton, and passion is now being allied with cautious optimism.

The question remaining is how long it will take for results to make it back from Stadio Olympico with any consistency. You can't win games without quality players and unfortunately, on paper at least, Italy are simply the worst team in the tournament (despite having the best food. Hands down. I will brook no argument; France can do one.) Despite this, O'Shea has warned that his side will not die wondering, and scribes and scholars the rugby world over have been up late into the winter evenings, pouring over the laws by candlelight to try and find the next 'no offside line' loophole that will make England look like dicks for 40 minutes.

Scotland

Injury news: Scotland have injuries. Specially in the front row, where no short of 8 part-rhinoceroses will not be locking horns with anyone else any time soon. Scottish ambition has moved on in the last 5 years, however. After a decade of watching forwards repeatedly batter at the line 5 metres out and get no closer, someone suggested that the backs might like to have a crack. And it turns out they're a bit handy.

The biggest statement of pre-tournament intent from Edinburgh has come in the naming of the captain: not Greig Laidlaw, but John Barclay. Extrapolating from basic principles leads you to the conclusion that Laidlaw will not be starting at 9, with live-wire and Finn Russell club-mate Ali Price looking favourite. All the backline now has a very Glasgow feel to it, and they can do things like this (skip to 1:35):

Make no mistake, Scotland will have a say on who wins this tournament, one way or another.

Wales

Injury news: yes. Warburton, Lydiate, Davies, Biggar, Webb, Faletau. Wales have also expanded their ambition but there has always been the suspicion that the team hadn't quite settled into it, or perhaps that selection was one or two players awry. Some scintillating running - most notably against New Zealand away - has been mixed up with being, well, er, iffy. Offloading to fresh air and the like. With their first 3 matches against Scotland, England and Ireland, the fear amongst Welsh fans will be that their title challenge will be over before it has begun.

That said, you never write them off. If Glasgow have been good in Scotland, the Scarlets have been excellent in Wales. The talent is there for Warren Gatland if he can harness it, with the likes of Rhys Patchell looking to make a name for himself on a bigger stage. If some of the relatively inexperienced players can shine this far out from the World Cup, the attrition rate may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for more than one nation.

Predictions

Most are billing this as a 2 horse race between England and Ireland, egged on by World Rugby rankings that mean about as much as a French limerick. France usually win after a Lions year but look a shambles. Wales are always dangerous but have suffered from a lack of confidence in recent years. Can Scotland do better than their 3 wins last year? When trying to seriously predict a winner it is tough to look beyond the final day showdown between England and Ireland, but as this tournament has delighted in stuffing predictions up peoples noses for years, stick your money on Scotland. You'll get better odds.

(England will win.)

6N Interim Assessment

Has everyone gotten their breath back? The second fallow weekend of the 6N, and the moment when the sides left with a shot at the title take a deep breath before the icy, head-first plunge into their last two games.

Unusually, one of those sides this year is Scotland, who have already lived up to expectations and are succeeding in crating a feeling that there is still more to come. The make-up of the Lions squad will be interesting indeed. Although they struggled to make headway in Paris after losing their captain (and most of the rest of their team, actually) in a freak hail storm of injuries that belonged more to the trenches than international sport, at home Scotland have mixed breakdown solidity with some ruthless back play. Some of their tries have been wonderful and the way they closed out their games against Ireland and Wales, under no small amount of pressure, was impressive. They face their toughest match next against England at Twickenham, and will want a free-for-all against a forward pack that thrives on set pieces.

England themselves are three-from-three, and have been involved in the best and oddest matches of the tournament so far, against Wales and Italy. If it has been far from convincing from the defending champions, it has also not been nearly as bad as certain journalists (mentioning no names, Greg Crowden) have been insisting on insisting. England played a full part in an even and brutally-contested game in Cardiff, and won after the execution of high skill under great pressure by players who had been on the field for the full 76 minutes. This after Wales had done extremely well, repeatedly, to save themselves on their own try line. You can call that 'luck' to Owen Farrell's snarling death-mask of a face at your own risk. The biggest disappointment for England was how long they took to adjust to Italy's breakdown tactics, but they still scored more tries in one half against the Azurri than Wales managed in an entire game and some of those tries would have troubled much better sides than Italy. If this is playing badly, I assure you England fans will take it and everyone else needs to worry about what happens when they play well, because someone is going to be on the wrong end of a hiding. Like everyone else, though, England are fallible and have it in them to lose, which is exactly what everyone else wants them to do, as reading between the lines the overriding conclusion is that the rest of the world seems to have decided that the winning run has now gone beyond a joke.

Italy had to come up with something, because lets face it if they hadn't that hiding would have been dished out: the second half was evidence enough of that. Italy were well within their rights to do what they did and it was an immensely clever tactic for shock value alone, adhered to with admirable commitment in execution. Unfortunately, it is not a tactic that is going to win them any games as it makes it easier for teams who have heads on their shoulders - as opposed to bird-watching in the south London clouds - to attack through the middle and generate quick ball. They need to come up with something else in defence and a method of scoring points. Especially a method of scoring points. Whoever they want as their goal-kicker should be working on it around the clock, and then a bit more. They should be dreaming about kicking penalties. It's difficult to imagine what they could do to cause more chaos without the ball but what was interesting after the England game was the tantalising prospect of more up the Italian sleeve, hinted at by their coach, Connor O'Shea. Personally, I can't wait to see what they come up with against France, who doesn't want to see some headless chickens?

Ah, France. The penny has dropped over the channel, hasn't it? And not just on the field, with the top-brass finally taking some steps towards knobbling the clubs and giving succour to the national side. Little things, like being able to train together before the 6N, apparently make all the difference. France are the team who can feel most hard-done-by by their result against England, who didn't turn up until the last 15 minutes and still won. Les Bleus, simply, have forgotten how to do that. They contained Scotland well in an agricultural, bull-in-China-shop kind of way, and have shown flashes of offloading brilliance without it really clicking enough. But they have resisted the urge to go full bulldozer - there have been no prop-sized centres anywhere and you get the sense that, for the first time in a decade, they know which direction they are going in. Scary for the other 5, going forwards, but they have still lost twice and so will not be challenging this year.

Much like Wales. On paper they're a brilliant side, yet they only really roused themselves for the England match and still came up agonisingly short. Dan Biggar was immense in that game and played himself right out of Lions contention with an aplomb and brilliance that will surely see him go down in history as the best 10 who should not be allowed anywhere a test in New Zealand. During the middle 40 minutes of the game, the Welsh forwards dominated England, yet the only time Wales looked like scoring a try was from a set play off the base of the scrum. The Lions, simply, will need more against the All Blacks. Wales, meanwhile, backed up their best game in a long time against England with an indifferent and inaccurate display against Scotland, dominating territory and possession only to play through the second half without scoring. The word 'disappointment' probably isn't enough to cover the strength of feeling in Wales right now. They are capable of much more, and could potentially do England a massive favour against Ireland in Cardiff.

Ireland look the best-placed team to de-throne England, with the Sexton/Murray axis reunited and the home fixture against Eddie Jones' side on the last day. Cardiff on a Friday night remains a significant hurdle, however, especially if the Welsh value their pride above England losing. They will be ruing their opening day stumble against the Scots with accomplished displays against both Italy and France and Sean O'Brien and CJ Stander bossing the back row contests. Should England beat Scotland, then the world will once again be looking at the Irish to end a ridiculous winning run, just as they prevented New Zealand from reaching 19 in the autumn. While it will not be the Grand Slam decider that was hoped for before the tournament began, Dublin on St Patricks weekend may still decide the destination of the title.

I'll get the Guinness in, see you there.

Six Nations Annual Preview/Piss Take

Another year, another January of whiling away hours, staring listlessly out of windows, moaning at rain and counting down the until the 6 Nations starts. Well, January is over. February is here, and with it comes the annual blood-letting, amateur dentistry and tribal warfare that constitutes Europe’s premier Rugby tournament.

So England, Scotland and Wales probably won’t be allowed to play anymore. (Get them in early.)

There is added spice this year with state of rugby itself in flux. The World Cup proved to be the watershed that snapped the Northern Hemisphere out of its defend-and-kick, win-by-not-losing attitude. Kicking 21 points is not enough to stop New Zealand scoring 5 tries, never has been, and sides have reacted accordingly. Bonus points are in, with the caveat that a grand-slam still takes all. Fly halves are small again, which is a bugger for the likes of Courtney Lawes aiming to rattle a few rib cages, as you can now expect to be sin-binned for the heinous crime of playing rugby.

Much has been written elsewhere – and at great length – about the new tackle laws, or new punishments to laws that have always existed, or whatever else these things are. I will limit myself to the observations that: 1, players have been sent off when they previously would not have conceded a penalty, so clearly something has changed despite Wayne Barnes' protestations to the contrary, and 2, that placing 100% of the responsibility for the outcome of contact on the tackler is nonsensical and unfair when the bloke with the ball is trying to step, weave, jink, dodge, duck, dip, dive or dodge around him. There are plenty of instances when it’s the ball carriers fault that contact becomes potentially concussive.

Preamble done. Let’s take a shufty at the runners and riders, shall we? Alphabetically (See, I’m not biased.):

1. England

One year and 13 games unbeaten under Eddie Jones (+1 under the outgoing Stuart Lancaster) represents the best record of any 6 Nation going into the tournament by some margin, even if England were, at times, playing an Australia side that displayed the game management qualities of week-old trifle. 'About bloody time!' the Englishmen cry. 'He's Donald Trump!' retorts Jim Telfer, which even for him is a bit strong. I've been unable, despite extensive* research, to unearth an interview where he compared Clive Woodward to Hitler and Martin Johnson to Goebbels, but I'm sure it's out there. England have been hit by the traditional one-side-cops-for-it injury curse this year, but also have the depth to cope with that the best, and a back row of Itoje-Hughes-Wood isn't bad for a completely different one to last year. They will need to start well against a (Possibly. I mean, who knows really?) resurgent France but folk are already talking about the last game, against Ireland, as the one that will decide the champions. Certainly their new-found ability to win from any position, like 20-odd nil down against Australia inside 10 minutes, will be tested to the max in Dublin.

*I did no research.

2. France

Resurgent, I said. Did I? Yes. Should have beaten Australia in the Autumn. Could have beaten New Zealand. But then... they didn't. Anyone who watches the Heineken Cup - whatever that's called now - will know that Clermont are flying, but also that Wesley Fofana, actually playing in his right position, has been a big part of that in a superb midfield. Do they possess the wherewithal to take on England at Twickenham without their catalyst? Maybe. They certainly pose more of a threat on turnover ball than when a certain Basteraud was* blundering around the midfield like a lost bison: a props body trapped in a centres shirt, with all the passing acumen and attacking vision of a pigs dismembered trotter. France have 3 away games, with England and Ireland being two of those and representing perhaps the toughest fixtures around. You'd be a brave man to bet on them, but then, as always, bloody anything could happen with them.

*I've not actually seen the French line-up: Basteraud might be playing for all I know. I hope he is.

3. Ireland

If anything, people seem more convinced by Ireland than England. Some of the quality of their rugby in the autumn was breathtaking, admittedly, and any side that beats New Zealand is to be taken with the same seriousness as a rabid shark. They will be without Sexton and O'Mahony for their opening game (away to Scotland) which won't help the bid to get off to a flyer. Can they maintain the momentum, gained in no small part from the tragic death of Anthony Foley during the Autumn, all the way through a 6 Nations? Connor Murray is a key player whom the opposition will look to target and disrupt*, and a large part of Ireland's chances will depend on their ability to keep both first-choice half-backs on the field. A more-than-decent Scotland also present a large, if dark blue, banana skin first up. It may well be that I am simply trying to convince myself. Is Henshaw fit?

*For 'disrupt', read 'injure early on'.

4. Italy

I love Italy. In fact, if England don't win, I hope Italy do. Their country is amazing, they have the best food hands-down* and Sergio Parisse bloody well deserves it. I mean, seriously, the man is a machine. 2003 he started. 2003! All the chat after last year was whether or not Italy even deserved to be in this tournament. That discussion is still, I believe, valid purely for the carrot it would dangle in front of the likes of Georgia, but should not be limited to Italy. Connor O'Shea has been drafted in not just to get results on the pitch, but put long-term infrastructure in place that will develop players and a competitive team far into the future. The early noise is that progress is being made, and they have some young, actually Italian (as opposed to imported Australian or Kiwi) attacking players such as Michele Campagnaro and Carlo Canna who are extremely talented and could be the lynch pins of a team, post-Parisse. The battle for the wooden spoon will certainly not be short of quality. The danger is that their best players get injured early doors: they simply do not have the depth of other nations.

*Hands. Fucking. Down.

5. Scotland

And ditto for Scotland. About the emerging talent, not the good food, although I am partial to a bit of haggis. Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg, Johnnie Gray; make no mistake, these boys can play.* As with Italy, the confidence is starting to grow, though they do not yet have the results to show for their hard work. England and France away are tough assignments but Scotland will fancy anyone at home, where they can simply wheel out Telfer to growl intelligibly at the opposition until they are bemused enough to not notice that the game has started. If there is one difference between this Scotland and previous versions, it is the attitude that if they're going to lose, then they're damn well going to go down fighting and trying to score tries running it through the backs. It's refreshing to see, and good for the game.

*Don't worry: there will be no more rhyming.

6. Wales

A strangely absent force from European rugby in the last couple of years, given the talent in their ranks. Wales were past masters at the old, powerful, bash-it-up style of play, so much so that it was even named after their coach, so maybe it should not be so much of a surprise that an adaptation to heads up rugby has come as a slight culture shock. A summer tour to New Zealand is an unforgiving task when you need to get results as a side, but for all the intent they showed on that tour they were then stodgy in the autumn. Like pudding,* or some bricks in a bucket of custard. The task facing Rob Howley will be to unleash the likes of Scott Williams on a regular basis, and the question then becomes the best fly-half to do that. Dan Biggar is a fine player, but running with his head up is not his best quality and Sam Davies has been keeping him out of the Ospreys team, which takes some doing. Whatever the combination they settle on, you'd expect an improvement from the autumn.  

*The good kind, with suet. Not the American kind.

So who's going to win? It's difficult to see a Grand Slam, but then people say that most years and there usually is one. The law of averages tells me England have to lose sooner or later and they have 2 tough away games. Ireland will be without Sexton for at least one game. Matches could be decided on one genuine accident and the needless reach of a crimson card from a referees pocket. Tricky, but I'm sticking my neck out and backing...

England, on points, potentially of the bonus variety.

Here's to Round 3, when stuff happens.

There's a lot to catch up on.

After an autumn in which everyone (including Japan) played rugby except England and decided New Zealand were the best, England have taken a break from not playing rugby and joined in the Six Nations rugby tournament. France have switched from barely playing rugby to barely playing rugby but with different people barely playing it. Ireland are trying to play rugby from hospital, Scotland and Italy are trying with some success to play rugby but without winning any games of rugby (or chess. Or conkers. Let's face it, they couldn't beat a carpet.) and Wales are playing rugby, but not the rugby they were playing earlier on.

Now that we're all back in the swing of things, we can talk about what an interesting position the tournament is at. Try as the southern hemisphere might, no amount of better-quality play (tries? Who needs 'em?) can match the 6N. It's a bit like the premier league in football: stick them in Europe and they get murdered by Barcelona, but the league is competitive enough to guarantee intrigue and many, many millions of shiny, shiny pounds. Rugby may lack the cash, but there's no denying the alluring call of the 6 team round-robin, so: defending 2-times champs Ireland are all but out of it after 2 games, and Wales are playing catch-up because of their draw but with power to take the unbeaten teams down. Of these - France and England - France have barely scraped the results and England look better placed (but not convincingly, securely or inevitably so) to pull off a Grand Slam. Italy and Scotland have done what they do every year, which unfortunately for Italians or Scots is talk optimistically, play optimistically, and lose habitually.

Perhaps that's me being harsh on Italians and Scots, but it does seem to be a repeating pattern. Like winter. For all the talk of Scotland being within minutes of a World Cup semi, they didn't extract a sweat from England (who didn't enter the World Cup, so who knows how far they'd have got?) on their home patch, though they did improve against Wales. Italy fared better against the French, then crumbled against England - again - when an interception try took the game away from them. Perhaps it's England being good: they're certainly the common denominator, but even the most vehement of fans would be hard-pushed to say they've improved that much.

Which is not to say they haven't at all, because they have. Just not drastically. There have been flashes. Filthy, tempting flashes. Owen Farrell's try against Italy was a glimpse and the way the pack controlled the second half against Scotland was a thoroughly professional job - but Eddie Jones is no miracle worker. The team as a whole still has a tendency to daft mistakes - like a man asking for 'EVERYTHING!' on his 2am post-match kebab. Everything was right up to that point, just - why? The way they've used the ball from the scrum has been... well, they haven't, have they? Coaches come and go, it seems, but old habits die hard. The hookers ARE hooking, apparently, and England have no problem winning their own ball, but quick ball from the base might be better than trying to buy penalties and giving the ball away again, maybe. Especially on the opposition 5m line. The midfield still doesn't have a settled pairing, something that dogged Stuart Lancaster like a bad penny (or a terrible pound) throughout his tenure, but then you can't expect Ma'a Nonu + Conrad Smith to be conjured up after 2 games. England remain a work in progress, but the yardstick the RFU will measure their investment in Jones by is championships. So the question is: have they progressed enough? The next 2 games, against Ireland and Wales, (and both at home) will go a way towards explanation.

Ireland, meanwhile, are desperate for a win. A raft of retirements and/or life-threatening hospitalisations have seen their pack lose the cutting edge that has seen the last 2 championships end up being presented under green ticker tape and being soaked in Leprechaun-scented champagne. To throw away a 13-point lead against Wales was bad, to lose against a French team that couldn't find it's arse with both hands would have been unthinkable with certain names - Paul O'Connell, Brian O'Driscoll, Cian Healy, Peter O'Mahony, Sean O'Brien - fit and at their best. Healy, at least, should be back against England, but Ireland need to remember how to unlock defences without the help of a certain TV pundit. They will be praying Jared Payne gets through his fitness test, especially travelling to the home of a team who have yet to concede a try in the championship.

Who's left? France. I've given up. If anyone would like to fill this paragraph in with what the hell is going on over there, who this 'Noves' chap is (if that IS his real name) and why in the name of Johnny you would leave your first choice front row ON THE BENCH to play the defending champions, or let the 2nd best kicker in the team have first dibs at kicking the 50m penalties ('ee needs dee prac-teese, Monsieur) then be my guest and send me the word doc. France remain as baffling as ever, which is fun if you're not French but must be bloody infuriating if you are. They seem determined to take under-performance to as-yet unplumbed depths, scouring their not-inconsiderably sized country for the cream of European rugby talent only to let it ferment into rancid vomit-inducing shit-cheese come match-day. This is, of course, a shameless attempt to reverse-mockers them into playing well against Wales.

Wales are also playing. Some of them are named Davies. The lad Biggar has epilepsy, which everyone seems to be ignoring, and Jamie Roberts has taken it upon himself to prove, once and for all, that all anyone needs in life is a good piss-up (he's been back to University). The play-two-sevens experiment has been ditched for tonight's game against France (everyone in this hemisphere ignores the fact that Aus play their second 7 at 8, not 6. That means you still have someone doing the hard graft so the pretty boys can practice their art of legal burglary at breakdowns, but you sacrifice the big-bulldozing ball-carrying tackle-smashing 8, and for Wales to do that you're talking about dropping Faletau. Aint gonna happen. Either copy Australia properly, or don't bother.) which should see balance restored to their back row. Roberts is in great form (Centurions.) and North took advantage of  Scotland panicking about him (Roberts) running at them to find a bit of touch himself. If they don't beat France, I will eat one of those daffodil hats. This is, of course, a shameless attempt at mockers-ing (?) them into losing. Preferably badly.

To sum up, then: going into week 3 all six teams are still in with a shout (at least theoretically (in the same way that the story of Genesis is a theory)) of winning the championship. By Saturday night, that number might have been chopped in half, so this is crunch time for some teams. Will Wales be aiming to vomit spectacularly on the carpet of another England party at Twickenham? Will Ireland give themselves enough of a chance to justify stockpiling speculative amounts of Guinness? Will France - err - what will France do? Who knows, but it should be fun to watch.

Aliens Ruined England's World Cup.

OK, I'll admit it: I've never been one to go to undue effort trying to find something original to write about. I mean, I enjoy writing, and moaning, and giving my two pennies worth (sometimes I'll even stretch to 5p, I like it that much) but you're unlikely to catch me awake in the middle of the night, pondering the deep mysteries of space and time whilst wondering how to reconcile said deep mysteries with the underlying contradictions, complexities and futility of the the human condition. 'To hell with sharp, insightful analysis!' I cried, as I created my username for this blogging platform. 'Hang original thinking, or creative endeavour!' I ejaculated as I confirmed my email address (and yes, that was an excuse to use the word 'ejaculate'). 'This waste of html will be just as monotonous, prosaic and platitudinous as the Daily Mail, so help me God.' Lofty heights for which to try and reach, I'll concede, but thus the goal was set.

So this blog is about Sam Burgess.

In two words: poor bloke. It's undoubtedly a sad situation this, made all the sadder by just how every single person in the world has been in complete agreement about the whole thing, with the notable exceptions of the Bath and England management teams. That it should have come to this is a sorry state of affairs and one which deserves answers for the fans, because I find it difficult to accept that the men in charge have been honest with us. As follows.

England's world cup was a shambles. You can point to mitigating factors: the refusal to kick 3 points against Wales that would ultimately have taken us through, the fact that Australia had dug up some Tasmanian devils since the last time they rocked up to Twickenham, and the fact that it didn't matter what England did because nothing less than the total and utter destruction of the human race would have prevented the All Blacks from winning this one. That said, the team didn't show up as a collective when it mattered most. When moments were there to be grabbed against Wales and Australia, England fumbled worse than bambi in a soap factory.

Let's be clear, that was not Burgess' fault. Unfortunately for him, though, he is the clearest illustration of how poorly managed the whole thing was. When league players cross to union, the most successful, historically speaking, have been in the back three. Think Jason Robinson. Chris Ashton. Israel Folau. There have been others who made a damn good fist of playing in the centre: Sonny Bill Williams springs to mind, as does Burgess' Bath team-mate Kyle Eastmond.It takes time - a lot of time - for them to make that switch a success, to learn the game and the intricacies of their position. Williams is used off the bench by New Zealand. Eastmond didn't make England's World Cup squad, despite playing most of the domestic season in Sam Burgess' team. In the position England wanted Burgess to play in. If Bath thought Eastmond was better there, what were England seeing that they weren't?

If England were playing next weekend and Lancaster picked Chris Robshaw or Tom Wood to play at 12, people would question his sanity, and rightly so. If Gatland tried to play Warburton at 12 there'd be a revolt. It's daft to play experience players out of position, never mind relative novices. Add to that: England were going up against two world class 12s in Jamie Roberts and Matt Giteau. Was anyone seriously suggesting Burgess was in their league? Again this is not a slight on Burgess, merely an illustration of how improbable and how (with hindsight, admittedly) doomed to failure the whole thing was. Burgess didn't do a whole lot wrong, but he didn't win England any games either and he should never have made it on to the pitch ahead of, say, an urban fox who lived round the corner from the Stoop. At least it would have known the pitch.

Which leads me back to the men who picked him. That last paragraph was easy to write after the event, and if England had gotten to the semis it may well have been a different story. But I seem to remember someone saying, way back when, that players had to earn their place in his team through form. One of the central tenants of the 'new England' after the last World Cup fuck-up, was that. Yet at the most important point of his or any of his players' careers, Lancaster departed - or allowed himself to be persuaded away from - his golden rule. I reckon it's a legitimate question to ask why, and that's before we get on to the question of tactics.

People seem to forget that Owen Farrell was injured throughout the last 6 nations, and if he hadn't been George Ford might not have started all Englands games. Nevertheless, they did show glimpses of what they were capable of when they put 50 wonderful, breathless , ridiculous points past France. They took the defence-first rule book and binned it, and they won a few friends in doing so.

So come the World Cup: Farrell, Burgess, Barritt. Three players who would rather run through a brick wall than show it the ball and go the other way, laughing as they saw it fall flat on its bricky arse. That can work, but it does rather stick all your eggs in one basket. And it was a different basket from the one England fans had started liking in the 6N. And the eggs were rotten. And the chickens had been carried off by that fox from earlier. And turned into nuggets.

My gripe here really is that the more I think of it, the more it looks to me like everything was done to get Burgess into the side no matter what. That might not be the case, and again it's result dependent thinking, but the whole thing now seems so divorced from logic, reason or evidence of Lancaster's reign to date that it feels like it was out of his hands. Like it was orders from on high, and like Burgess was basically promised he'd be playing in the World Cup before he'd left Sydney. I hope I'm wrong, but if that was the case then someone should be sacked.

Which is another reason to think that is was orders from on high: on high has rather conveniently been left out of the scope of the review into England's failure. Lancaster's position, meanwhile, looks more precarious by the day.

Sorry for the conspiracy theories, but, y'know, 9/11, Elvis is alive, Harry Potter is real and the letter just got lost in the post etc. Didn't New Zealand play well? Who needs world cups anyway grumble grumble grumble....

Stick or Twist, Australia?

In 2013, England went Down Under with a side that had been around a bit, but many thought were still capable of winning. A few tests later, Jonathan Trott was close to hospitalisation through cricket overload, Graeme Swann had retired and no one could cope with the Aussie conditions as Mitchell Johnson dynamited his way through innings after innings and probably through Ayres Rock between games. 

No one thought England would win the first test, but history is now firmly in their favour: sides hardly ever come from behind (1997 and 2005 being the last 2 instances) and the last time a man in a Baggy Green left Blighty with the Urn in his bag was in 2001. It is difficult to come from behind, and it is difficult to win away. Which by my maths makes it doubly difficult to do both. The England side has been re-built since it's antipodean, moustachioed mauling and now knows it can beat this lot, and beat them well. One match into this Ashes series, Australia should be looking back and learning lessons - fast.

England tried to eke just one more series out of a successful but ageing side, and failed miserably. Woefully. Tear-inducingly and suicide-motivatingly. Say what you like about Steve Smith being world class, they said it all about Kevin Pietersen. Say what you like about either Mitchell: we were assured Jimmy would find just enough swing with those ruler-impersonating Kookaburra atrocities to make him dangerous. Pre-series talk counts for bugger all, for which I am eternally grateful because in these heady days of ubiquitous media it is increasingly tedious. England failed to heed their early warning signs and were smashed to bits, box by box. 

For Australia, the early warning signs have been rung, loud and clear. Number one: down in Cardiff they'd taken the bowlers out of Australia but they hadn't taken Australia out of the bowlers. Bouncers won't get you as many wickets up here as they will in Perth. You're less likely to be able to tell an opposition tail ender to get ready for a broken arm and mean it. Pitches around the world - be they in Bangladesh or Barbados, Calcutta or Cape Town - have their own characteristics and their own ways to take wickets. Australia, first and foremost, need to wake up and realise this is not the Gabba. Bowl full. Persevere. Exploit the swing and get your nicks. 

Number two: Shane Watson is as likely to get out lbw as a crocodile is to live near water. Certain. Without fail. Ad infinitum. That can be forgiven for a series or even a season, but over 6 years for a test batsman it must have worn a bit thin and there hasn't been any obvious tinkering with his technique to try and combat it. Does he not think it's an issue? Judging by his use of the DRS, it's more likely he simply doesn't understand what 'LBW' means. When others score runs and he contributes with the ball, this particular crack has paper over it. Neither of those two things happened in Cardiff.

Number 3: Brad Haddin and David Warner averaged 58.11 and 61.62 respectively in the last Ashes. They were the top two run scorers. Warner averages 22 in England and Haddin 30, but 17.92 everywhere over the last year. Stats don't tell you everything and the fact that Warner almost survived until lunch on day 4 says bags for his character, but Broad had him on toast. He needs to work out how to score runs in England, and Haddin needs to catch his catches. His drop of Joe Root on 0 cost Australia this game and that's the end of it. Another costly miss at Lords will have even more folk casting their eyes over his age and wondering whether or not he's past it. You can't quite throw Chris Rogers in as well, but it would only take 2 or 3 failures before you could. As with Watson, there's only so loud annoying noises can get before you have to do something about them.

Number 4: Michael Clarke. Same stats: average of 46.38 in England, 31.3 over the last 12 months. More worryingly, Clarke was the main man who had to grasp the conditions and didn't. The tactics were wrong in the first innings, and then were persevered with when it became clear they were not working. A portion of blame goes to the bowlers, but equally to Clarke, who should have known better. And he has a dodgy back. 

It's a sad fact in sport that most good teams are allowed to go on playing until someone gives them an unceremonious hiding. England have earned their last 2 (out of a total of 3) Ashes whitewashes through this policy and to stick or twist is now the question facing Australia. For the second test in Adelaide at the back end of 2013, everyone said that not panicking and sticking by their guns was the right call for England. It wasn't, but whoever they brought in would probably have lost as well: it takes years of planning ahead to get succession working as an easy process and the All Blacks are the only people who do it consistently. But Australia clearly need to up their game, and the areas to do it in are there for all to see. The question is, can they? It's a tough thing to do, and I for one would like to wish them absolutely no luck at all.  

6N So Far, and How to Fix Scrums BY JOSH COOPER, TM, COPYRIGHT, MY IDEA.

Two games down, and it looks distinctly as if the 6 Nations will be decided in the next round. That's not hard and fast, obviously, nothing ever is in this competition. Unlike that southern one, which is always won by the men in black. Which is ironic, given that they play like some alien species specifically evolved to expertly handle egg-shaped pieces of leather with each of their four limbs, and probably a few more the rest of us haven't seen yet. Anyway, we should have a clear idea of the trophies destination after the two remaining unbeaten sides - Ireland and England - get together in Dublin.

As far as England are concerned, the game plan will have its reset button poked with a paper clip. Imperious in the second half against Wales, far too many tackles were missed against an Italian side who, to be fair, have more chance of brokering a bailout deal with Greece that involves offsetting feta against the Euro than they do of consistently winning games in 6N right now. Johnny May's defence, in particular, is cause for concern and that stretches back to the Wales game and, indeed, beyond. (I'd like to point out that I wrote that before the reports in todays press, 18/2/15.) Score a peregrine falcon of a try against NZ he may have done, but that was a few games back and he's been leaking tries over his own line since. I would, therefore, not be surprised to see Jack Nowell - blessed as he is with considerably less speed but far greater tackling technique - peering hopefully over Stuart Lancasters shoulder as he writes his team down. (And that.) And I can't stand wingers or full backs who insist on wearing bloody scrum caps. Defensive frailties aside, the Ford/Joseph axis is clearly working and Twelvetrees is playing like a man possessed by a tiger possessed by a wasp whenever his boots hit grass. England's midfield prospects look optimistic for the first time in bloody ages, and long may it continue.

Ireland may not quite have hit the heights they managed in the autumn but they are tactically probably the most astute team in this hemisphere, channelling Joe Schmidt's spirit on to the field like so many bulked-up, inexplicably angry Derren Browns. They are always fiercely combative and have the likes of Sexton and O'Brien back playing, which helps them no end. Sexton, especially, is cutting a crucial figure. England would not be sorry to see him ruled out after he decided that the baby elephant that is Matieu Bastareaud needed a good head butting, but as that seems unlikely, England will have to make do with Jamie Heaslip after Pascal Pape took it upon himself to give a chiropractic demonstration in the 2nd half. Pape will be lucky to play again in the tournament. The game in Dublin, though, will feature the tournaments most ruthless defence so far standing off against a lightning-quick centre who neither knows nor cares what tackling is, or how it might stop him scoring tries. Intrigue abounds.

Of the other two Celtic nations, Wales will be glad for the win under their belt whereas Scotland will be looking for someone who can exorcise the Murrayfield goal lines for them. The finishing ineptitude of the Scots aside (and Vern Cotter really will be tearing his hair... oh) the games main talking point has, regrettably, come in the shape of the ref. Two tackles in the air, two yellow cards, although they were at opposite ends of the yellow spectrum (can you have a spectrum of just one colour?) and only one of the offending players, Scottish 10 Finn Russell, has been cited. While it is now undoubtedly the guy on the floors responsibility not to take out the guy in the air, Russell was exactly where he was supposed to be defensively, did not force Dan Biggar into a salmon impersonation, tried to avoid any collision, and generally should be afforded some measure of sympathy. The severity of punishment meted for these challenges seems to depend entirely on which body part the challengee lands on rather than anything the challenger does - intentionally or otherwise - and lets be honest it's something the authorities should be clarifying and sorting out. After scrums. Do scrums first.

Seriously, do the bloody scrums.*

Meanwhile, France were rubbish and it rained in London.

Bring on Dublin!


* As a sort-of afterthought, and in an attempt to bring some serious rugby discussion to these pages, here's some thoughts about what could be done to sort the scrums out. Hopefully they will back up my whinging a bit.

We know what the problems are: they take effing forever, the laws regarding the feed are not even bloody recognised anymore, never mind policed, and teams (at least in the Northern hemisphere) use them as a way of gaining a penalty, rather than a platform to restart open play.

The first two are solved pretty easily: put a time limit on them (like there is already on penalty kicks and conversions) and TELL REFEREES TO MAKE SCRUM HALVES FEED IT STRAIGHT. Seriously, that issue is one of the most ridiculous things in sport, never mind rugby. Get tough on it, there is simply no reason to let it slide as it has.

The penalty thing is more difficult. The reason why teams go for penalties is the territory gain associated with having the throw in at the resultant line out. Even in the middle of the pitch, this is seen as more of an advantage than ball-in-hand possession simply because of the metres gained. The only way to stop teams going for it is to remove this incentive. So my suggestion is this:

Downgrade ALL scrum penalty offences to free kicks, UNLESS awarded to a defending team inside their own 22. 

This removes attacking penalties completely but retains the reward for an excellent scrum by a defending pack on their own try line. Granted it's not a perfect fix, but it'd be more than a start.

I'm going to email world rugby immediately, letting them know when I can start my new job as head of world rugby refereeing.